EFF has a well considered, forward looking post listing a dozen trends that should be interesting to watch in 2010. As far as predictions go, I think these are pretty safe as most if not all of them have their seeds in events and proto-trends from 2009. My only disagreement is that I would have put three strikes and publishing both at the top of the list.
I do concur that we’ll see the industry rhetoric around three strikes proposals evolve and likely “evidence” to back it up. I am increasingly convinced that we need as incisive a response to these claims if not an outright way to break the back of this incredibly ill considered idea. I do not think we have fully plumbed the repercussions of disconnection and the cost of recovering from false accusations. I expect that once we start to feel the full ramifications more directly, that will accelerate the debate considerably.
With regards to the fate of publishing, EFF sees more of a question, whether books and periodicals will fully enter the digital realm or bog down as early digital music and video did. I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that the special place most readers hold for books may act as a forcing function.
When I heard Danny Reetz talk at WFUD about his DIY book scanner and realized the feasibility of essentially ripping your print library the way were are now accustomed to ripping our CD libraries, I know I was not the only one salivating. Not because I hate printed books but because they represent a significant emotional as well as financial investment. Avid readers will want to get more out of their books, more than the current popular e-book platforms offer, more than is possible with so-called richer media. I think that will cause the issue to accelerate to a head more so than it did with music and film.
Otherwise, this would be a good list to print or bookmark and have handy as we sift through the news during this coming year.