Just wanted to post a pointer to the first detailed posted by Professor Felten that he promised on the subject.
Haven’t even had a chance to read it, yet.
I’ve read this and here are some of my thoughts.
I would not so readily discount people’s willingness to transcode from the native HD format to DivX or something comparable. Given the popularity of YouTube, at least part of the draw to the darknet is simply availability, not necessarily quality. For those looking for HD, his point about title key sharing make sense. I expect that infringement will be made up of some sort of mix of the two.
Next post promises to be about key revocation though he hints at at least one issue, that disclosure of cracks, both code and keys, not only helps peers but those in control of the system. I’ll anticipate that he will again not talk about sharing of transcoded or original quality video and suggest that his next post will be worth the read as key sharing is clearly more problematic with AACS’s key revocation scheme, which he also plans to discuss.